Convert in either direction. Have a probability from any model (Poisson, your own estimate, anything) and want the fair American sportsbook price for it? Or have a sportsbook's odds and want to know the probability it implies? Both calculators below do the math, no goals or game context required.
Probability → odds
The formula
if p ≤ 50%: odds = (1 − p) / p × 100
if p > 50%: odds = −p / (1 − p) × 100
Plugged in for 25%:
odds = (1 − 25%) / 25% × 100
Odds → probability
The formula
if odds > 0: p = 100 / (odds + 100)
if odds < 0: p = −odds / (−odds + 100)
Plugged in for 300:
p = 100 / (300 + 100)
Odds to probability reference
| Odds | Probability |
|---|---|
| -1000 | 90.9% |
| -900 | 90.0% |
| -800 | 88.9% |
| -700 | 87.5% |
| -600 | 85.7% |
| -500 | 83.3% |
| -400 | 80.0% |
| -300 | 75.0% |
| -200 | 66.7% |
| -100 | 50.0% |
| +100 | 50.0% |
| +200 | 33.3% |
| +300 | 25.0% |
| +400 | 20.0% |
| +500 | 16.7% |
| +600 | 14.3% |
| +700 | 12.5% |
| +800 | 11.1% |
| +900 | 10.0% |
| +1000 | 9.1% |
Need a probability first?
If you're working from a soccer team's expected goals rather than a probability you already have, the Soccer Poisson Goals & Odds Calculator will derive the probability for you from a Poisson model, then convert it the same way this page does.
If probability ≤ 50%: American odds = (1 − p) / p × 100 (shown as +, an underdog price)
If probability > 50%: American odds = −p / (1 − p) × 100 (shown as −, a favorite price)
If odds > 0: implied probability = 100 / (odds + 100)
If odds < 0: implied probability = −odds / (−odds + 100)
Decimal odds = 1 / p
These are fair, no-margin odds implied directly by the probability. Real sportsbooks shade both sides to bake in their profit margin (the vig).